OPAQUE -

Operationelle Abfluss- und Hochwasservorhersage in Quellgebieten   operational discharge and flooding predictions in head catchments

Overview

Working package 4

HW management: Optimized dam control with better advance warning and prediction

Here the determination and quantification of the possible damages downstream the dams are in the center of attention for different training scenarios on basis of the long-term discharge predictions from package 3 and for different training scenarios on basis of synthetic precipitation rows, which are produced for this purpose.

Based on the long-term prediction of precipitation and discharge from packages 1 and 3 the possibilities of reducing the flood risk downstream the dams by an optimal control are analyzed. Knowing the prediction of reservoir inflows and its uncertainties we try to adapt the reservoir contents, water storage levels and the resulting discharges from the reservoir (controlled bed deliveries, uncontrolled overruns from the spillway) optimally. Due to the competition between the different uses of a dam (flood protection, drinking water supply, low water replenishment, energy production, tourism) the dam control is an optimization task. Therefore the quantification of the damages, which result for the different users and the adjacent localities downstream from the dam control, is essential. In particular at drinking water dams highest demands are to be made against the accuracy of precipitation and discharge prognoses for the dam control, so that the public potable water supply is endangered at no time. A further problem represents possible damages by pre flood dam discharge in advance, having no justification in the case of a wrong prognosis (problem of commitment). The damage estimation covers direct economic damage as well as the exposure of persons. Indirect damage is partially determined. The estimation of the direct economic damage encloses the private sector (private residential buildings and firms) as well as infrastructure damage of local and national facilities. Relative damage models (proportional damage during flooding) and value register (values of the exposed objects in Euro) are used for the estimation.

Additionally to the dam control scenarios on basis of historical long term predictions synthetic precipitation time series are determined by station precipitation. Precipitation discharge simulations of these theoretical scenarios will follow, serving input data form the optimization of dam control. On the basis of these data, the determined damage potentials and the competing goals of the dams usage an optimization is accomplished regarding a "Multi-objective Decision Making". A further focal point results from the inclusion of the precipitation prediction quality in the optimization and decision-making process, already mentioned.